BY SUZANNE HAZLETT, MBA, CIMA®, CFP®
“The benefits of a tariff are visible. Union workers can see they are ‘protected.’ The harm that a tariff does is invisible. It’s spread widely. Some people don’t have jobs because of tariffs, but they don’t know it.” Milton Friedman
Now that Trump has returned to the initial trade war tariffs on everyone except China (which accounts for 14% of U.S. imports), watching what happens with the various trade negotiations will be crucial. There is potential for a sizable number of negotiated trade deals over the next 90 days, enabling tariff reductions on both sides; however, it is a question of how much economic damage occurs first. Uncertainty will remain high until there is tangible evidence that some of the talks are progressing.
A negotiated solution will also need to be found for China, though the political dynamics are complicated. One indicator of progress in negotiations is the extent to which foreign governments may be rescinding their retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. China has been the most forceful in retaliating, followed, to a lesser extent, by the EU and Canada.
For its part, the White House plans to unveil another sector-level tariff on pharmaceuticals, which have been exempt from all of the new tariffs so far. A moderate approach to this decision would help negotiations with trading partners that have significant pharmaceutical industries, such as India and Ireland.
THE BOTTOM LINE: President Trump’s decision to issue a 90-day pause on his recently announced global ‘reciprocal’ tariffs in favor of a 10% universal tariff and a punitive 125% tariff on China represents another major shift in trade policy. While Trump’s willingness to negotiate is a good sign, the recently announced shift does little to reduce the effective tariff rate. While the reprieve helped the S&P 500 stage a massive relief rally—its best one-day move since October 2008—expect volatility to persist. The worst days in the market are usually clustered near the best days. Long-term investors would be wise to stay the course.
Suzanne Hazlett, MBA, CIMA®, CFP®, is a Certified Investment Management Analyst® and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM professional. Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Securities are offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. HAZLETT WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC is independent of Raymond James and is not a registered broker/dealer. 675 Sun Valley Road, Suite J1 + J2, Ketchum, Idaho, 83340 208.726.0605 HazlettWealthManagement.com
